Hurricane Gustav II

[Andy J]

Groan..... :mad:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5+gif/205743W_sm.gif

A bit of an update...

They are prediction cat 5 development....

People are leaving New Orleans....

http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=news/national_world&id=6354154

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2008/08/jefferson_parish_where_are_the.html

[Baldwinbob]

Andy, did I ever tell you what I think of George? Just kidding!!!!!!! :)


I've read in the past about the warm water in the Gulf but I don't think I've heard of the 'Loop Current'. Interesting.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26459330/


Bob

[rpicardi1]

No more Cuban cigars for a while. This thing is turning into a monster. Once it feeds off the very warm loop current, it will probably fill the Gulf with wide spread effects.

Depending how close the eastern wall gets to New Orleans, it may go down for the count. The repairs are not complete and the buffer zone of the delta was long ago washed away to sea. (Look at the Google Earth or local.live.com/ .)

[Baldwinbob]

I can feel my natural gas bill going up already. :mad:


Bob

[rpicardi1]

Well stocked on free firewood for the winter.

I am also have Xx Xxxx ( not allowed to use that name here) approved transport for short range shopping trips. (Recumbent trike and Burly flatbed trailer.):D

[maddog_2020]

Watch gas skyrocket aso.

[gerr]

Watch gas skyrocket aso.

I know. I was looking on weather.com and it showed this.

9 pm ET New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin has ordered a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans.

Additionally, eight parishes have issued separate mandatory evacuations.

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Contraflow traffic on interstates and highways begins along south Louisiana at 4 am CT on Sunday.

At the same, Mississippi opens all four lanes of Mississippi interstates 55 and 59.

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At 8 pm ET, that same ship off the northwestern coast of Cuba reported 19.7 feet wave heights.

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Hurricane Gustav is whipping up high waves in the Caribbean Sea. At 1:50 pm ET, a buoy located between the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan Peninsula recorded a peak wave height of 13.8 feet.

And at 6 pm ET, A ship reported a wave height of 14.8 feet off the northwestern coast of Cuba.

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Flights in and out of New Orleans' Louis Armstrong International Airport are scheduled to stop at 6 pm CT on Sunday. --

Republican governors Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Charlie Crist of Florida, Haley Barbour of Mississippi and Rick Perry of Texas are all skipping the Republican National Convention that begins on Monday in St. Paul, Minn.

Republican officials are considering how to change the convention to reflect the serious of the storm.

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The lower Florida Keys are under a tropical storm watch; they could be affected by wind and rain from Gustav's upper-right region.

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6 pm ET Hurricane Gustav has made landfall over Cuba, in the Pinar Del Rio province.

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Louisiana officials say they'll begin contraflow on interstates and some major highways on Sunday to allow for easier evacuation.

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The New Orleans Times-Picayune reports grocery store shelves in the city have been cleared of perishables as residents who didn't evacuate hunker down.

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The 5 pm update from the National Hurricane Center notes the first hurricane watch for the U.S. It extends from High Island, Texas, east to the Alabama/Florida border.

The NHC now forecasts for Gustav to remain a major hurricane through landfall.

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Hurricane Gustav slammed Cuba as a Category 4 storm. More than 240,000 Cubans evacuated, says the AP.

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Saturday 530 pm ET

It looks like Gulf coastal residents are heeding warnings to get to higher ground. About a million people reportedly have left.

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Saturday 5pm ET

Dr. Steve Lyons, The Weather Channel tropical weather expert, says there appears to be four impacts of concern for the U.S.:

1) Waves east of the center on the Alabama and western Florida coasts 2) High winds over a broad area over and within about 100-150 miles of the center that will cause power outages, down trees and result in some wind damage -- especially within 20-40 miles of where Gustav makes landfall 3) High surge over and east of the landfall point 4) Potential for flooding rains over, north and west of where Gustav makes landfall

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At 5 pm ET, Gustav had 150 mph -- closer to that Category 5 status.

[rpicardi1]

The track appears to be drifting closer to New Orleans. Not looking good.

[bradhig]

mandatory evacuation for New Orleans starting at 8am Sunday. Mayor of New Orleans is telling everyone to get out now.

[CGW409]

Watch gas skyrocket aso.

Maddog
It's going to spike worse than 05 with Katrina, the "oil industry experts" (read investment houses and bigger speculators) are already saying that due to oil supplies being tighter than they were in 05 we could see gas spike to well over 5.00 a gallon and if that's the national average then California and here in the Chicago area could see much closer to 6.00.

[Andy J]

Storm Surge maps..

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_surge.gif

[kevarc]

My house, green line is projected track

[Andy J]

My house, green line is projected track


Holy Crap! Kevin I hope everything works out for you.

Will flooding be an issue at your home?

[kevarc]

If we flood, there are serious issues, my house sit 28" off the ground. It is the trees that are a killer

Front and Back

[eaglefan9727]

I wish you the best Kevin that you and your house will be OK. Good luck and stay safe during the storm.

[Andy J]

If we flood, there are serious issues, my house sit 28" off the ground. It is the trees that are a killer

Front and Back

O Christ.. :eek: at those big tree I see in the photo, at least "down wind" from your house? I would seriously be considering using the chain saw if not.

But their again, if it floods, whats the point.

How did things turn out for you after Rita?

Best of luck to you Kevin...

[kilchisriver]

:) I hear you about the wind and trees. These photos are of the road in front of our home during our storm last December. Five days without access to the internet!! Seemed like a lifetime!!!! All kidding aside, our thoughts are with you and the others in that part of the world. -Mike :)

[Jim Prower]

Best of luck to you, Kevin. Those trees could be a big problem, hope they fall on soft soil...not rafters.

((We've had some nasty straightline winds in Peoria ourselves. No tornadoes this year, though.))

[rpicardi1]

Lets pray that this storm doesn't wind up at the last minute to a cat 4 or 5 as Andrew did across Florida. It is already got N.O. as the bulls eye at the worst possible angle and they no longer have any coastal marsh to adsorb the storm surges from the South East.

Keven, you are more likely to be buried in rain if the storm stalls out. The wind should be down by the time it hits you but the big danger are the tornadoes such a storm spawns over land.

Batten the hatches. It could be nasty.

[plainsman]

Eye will directly pass over LOOPS.:( Port Fourchon will get the NE quadrant surge. Better fill an extra gas tank!! This is the only deep water port for off loading tankers in the USA.
BTW, Hope you are high ground Kevin, I don't think the wind will be that bad for you, but you are going to get a deluge+ from the rain.

[westerngy]

I don't think the hurricane is going to do the damage that CNN wants folks to believe,but as the day goes on time will tell.CNN has done a great job into panicing the masses.

[cp5513]

CNN has done a great job into panicing the masses.

Ah, panicing the masses, CNN, MSNBC, & FOX do it so well. Well I'll add ABC, NBC & CBS, but the cable venues need to fill a 24hr news cycle, so they're better at it.

My thoughts are with anyone who's potentially affected by Gustav, my hope is it does die down before landfall, and likewise Kevin that your home makes it through this OK.

[plainsman]

The eastern part of the eye is just now passing over the loops facility. The REAL problem will be the storm surge as the wind turns out of the south and dumps the Gulf into Port Fourchon.
http://www.portfourchon.com/
Much weaker storms have put 12-16 feet of water over the area from Grand Isle to Port Fourchon. That won't begin until the south wind pumps the Gulf up into the bays for a time. If the Loops facility is damaged, the whole country would be in real trouble.

[westerngy]

The Port I understand is the only true deep water one on the Gulf is it not.

[plainsman]

Yes, it is out in the Gulf about 8 miles. There is an undersea pipeline that runs from the port to Port Fourchon to the north.
http://www.leeric.lsu.edu/le/cover/lead054d.htm
Without this facility, large tankers would have to offload to smaller tankers and they would then take oil to other ports. This is extremely inefficient. It would create massive supply problems as the LOOPS facility hooks right into about 4 or 5 refineries, no easy way to get oil from other poirts to refineries.

[Andy J]

Interesting information Bob, how do you explain this news?? :confused:

LONDON (AFP) — Oil prices dived to four-month lows on Monday, sliding below 110 dollars in London as a weakening Hurricane Gustav reduced the threat of damage to energy facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5isagNKh7w-IVMJbp9kCGb-ojs13A

Current price..

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

I have a feeling that Bobby Jindal's star is rising. :)

[plainsman]

I guess they have not seen Port Fourchon yet in London? Noone has seen LOOPs facility yet, it was evacuated. Maybe it will come out OK? I would not want to be in Port Fourchon right now, the south wind is building up the surge in the bay on the west. If the LOOPs is damaged, or Port Fourchon goes under water, I want my car filled just in case.

[kevarc]

Back home

I went to my Uncle's and it started getting real ugly about 1:00. Wind was unreal, we had 80mph.

He lost power about 3:00.

After the eye passed, I looked at the radar on my BB and saw that there was no back to it, it was falling apart. So I went to the house and checked it out. We had power and no damage to the house.

I went back and got everyone and came home.

Anyone up for raking leaves?

[westerngy]

Glad to hear Kevin everyone's okay and that the homestead didn't end up in Kansas.

[Andy J]

Back home

I went to my Uncle's and it started getting real ugly about 1:00. Wind was unreal, we had 80mph.

He lost power about 3:00.

After the eye passed, I looked at the radar on my BB and saw that there was no back to it, it was falling apart. So I went to the house and checked it out. We had power and no damage to the house.

I went back and got everyone and came home.

Anyone up for raking leaves?

Excellent news! Sounds like it was the best possible outcome!

[bnsf1959]

Sounds good Kev, Glad that your house is in one piece and everyone is safe and sound.

[Andy J]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5+gif/144313W_sm.gifKevin, I hope you have not headed back to Hawaii yet :eek:

Looks like God, is going to take another swing at "The Chocolate City..:rolleyes: They did not get the first few "messages"

[rpicardi1]

Before that happens, it looks like the worker's paradise is going to get flattened along its northern coast now that the western end has been blown away.

[mjs2101]

Better stock up on those cigars! Wonder how much Ike will weaken after taking that much of a trek over land? Of course, when he comes out on the other side, will be in the nice warm waters of the gulf, with plenty of time to regain momentum.

Looks like we might get lucky with Josephine staying out in the Atlantic. But you never know....

Mykel