Some background info on Georgia and the Caucasus region

[muskokaandtahoe]

A couple of audio files from the Strategy Page that I found interesting. Long, sometimes wandering, but informative.

First one is general stuff about the region... who gets along and who doesn't, touching on the Turks, Armenians, Azeri's, Georgians, and Ossetians.

http://www.strategypage.com/StrategyTalk/recordings/georgia-ethnic-tensions-lowest.mp3



Second one is mostly about Russian policy and their own public opinion on this region.

http://www.strategypage.com/StrategyTalk/recordings/russia-georgia-coldwar_low.mp3

[cp5513]

I know everyone's watching Georgia right now, but remember you read this hear first...
As a good friend reminded me recently, all eyes should now be on Moldova next and the break-away region of Transnistria. The Russians have been threatening the Moldovans with the same fate as Georgia. However one thing to keep in mind is that the current Moldovan President is a Pro-Russian communist - but they do have elections coming up soon, so who knows?

[rd4man]

Why is it the people of the World are Hell bent on destroying the planet and the people along with it?

We (the US) established military bases around the World (well over 100 of 'em - 30 in Japan alone!) with the idea it would detour the very things that continue to plague everyone. So much for THAT plan.

[muskokaandtahoe]

I think you meant to type deter -- to prevent, not detour -- to require a different route.

Anyway, IMO had there been a US base in Georgia, Russia would not have invaded it. That's not to say I think there should be a base there... just making an observation on what the presence of a US base can do.

[rd4man]

You're quite right......'deter', not 'detour'. I was thinking of De Tour, Michigan! I'm not sure all these bases scattered all over the planet are really doing what they were meant to do when they were established. 'Course it's a money-making deal, so I'm sure it will continue.

[cp5513]

Anyway, IMO had there been a US base in Georgia, Russia would not have invaded it. That's not to say I think there should be a base there... just making an observation on what the presence of a US base can do.

This is why Poland is part of the missile defence shield, it signed on with the specific provision that there be a US Army base placed there too. Poland has always had to ally herself to any 3rd party to protect her from: a) Germany, b) Russia, or c) both. In the past that used to be France until Napoleon's fall, then later the Brits. With both empires long gone the US and NATO are the only defence against Russia, assuming Germany is now no longer a threat thanks to the EU - though many Poles are still suspicious of them too. Point is, with a US Army base in your country it makes potential invading forces think twice.

[muskokaandtahoe]

The US has publically repeated it's position that both the Ukraine and Georgia should be part of NATO, if that's what they and NATO both want to do, and that matter is none of Russia's business.

George F. Kennan once said of the Russians, they have only two kinds of states on their borders, enemies and vassals.

I read with some interest yesterday an article that suggested there is a bit of a policy struggle going on in the Kremlin between Putin's mafia-like billionare faction -- those who have sent their money "offshore" into the west, and the old line nationalists who don't care who has the ill-gotten gains and where they've stashed it. IOW, those who want to tread somewhat cautiously while re-establishing the Russian Empire (for fear of having their assets frozen in the west), and those who are much more aggressive. The differences are in the how and when, not whether.

So much for the end of history.

[pstraten]

"..So much for the end of history"

Dave,

Now there was some wishful thinking. I imagine people have been making war on one another since the paleolithic...and it just escalated since the first villages and cities, yeah, like that's going to change.

For anyone who wants to read it back from 1989 and expanded in 1992, see:

http://www.wesjones.com/eoh.htm

[cp5513]

So much for the 'End of History' huh?

Funny... Prez Woodrow Wilson, British PM David Lloyd George and French PM Georges Clemenceau all thought that the 'End of History' had arrived after the Treaty of Versailles was signed. They used the phrase 'New World Order' too. I wouldn't be suprised if those same terms were not used after Congress of Vienna met to redraw the borders of Europe following the Napoleonic Wars.

[Paul1953]

which is fine, except they didnt have 27,000 nuclear missles at their disposal.

[chucksc]

which is fine, except they didnt have 27,000 nuclear missles at their disposal.
you do realize that most of them require periodic maintenance and that the Warsaw pact ones have reportedly received almost no maintenance in the last 10 years do you not? There is a real possibility that more than a few would "fizzle". the question is Do you want to take that chance?

[Paul1953]

Not me!

[cp5513]

Everyone here remember this quote from 1949...
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." Albert Einstein

[mjs2101]

The US has publically repeated it's position that both the Ukraine and Georgia should be part of NATO

Hence the reason for what is transpiring over yonder. Between that and the "missile defense shield", no wonder Russia is pushing back. Granted, the current political situation in Russia is not what we would like it to be, but we are not going to make things better by isolating them further.

Mykel